Ken Rosenthal
FOXSports.com
Run differential is overrated.
All right, maybe that’s overstated. But those crazy Diamondbacks are merely the latest club to outperform its estimated won-loss record based on its runs scored and runs allowed.
The Diamondbacks have been outscored 559-539, yet their record is 71-54. According to the Pythagorean formula devised by Bill James, their actual record should be 59-65 — and they should be sitting last in the NL West!
Though extreme, the Diamondbacks’ example isn’t terribly unusual. The 2006 Twins and Padres should not have won division titles based on their run differentials. Ditto for the ‘05 White Sox, who went on to win the World Series.
The ‘04 Yankees, outperforming their Pythagorean projection by 13 wins, should have finished 10 games behind the Red Sox instead of three games ahead. The American League Championship Series amounted to a massive statistical correction, among other things.
Run differential generally reflects a team’s underlying strengths and weaknesses — the current Yankees, even during their horrid first half, could point to their differential as evidence that they were closer to the Red Sox than their won-loss record indicated. But the statistic is not an absolute truth.
A pro scout says …
On Brandon Webb: He’s not Kevin Brown. If Kevin Brown had pitched like Brandon Webb, he would have won 25 games a year for 10 years. Brown had a 92-mph bowling-ball sinker. Webb throws 88 with a little slop curveball and changeup. What he does well is pitch within himself. He knows what he can and can’t do. He’s much better in the National League than he would be in the American League. A good American League team would foul off a lot of balls, stretch him out more. But he would be an ace on most American League staffs, too. Right now, he’s commanding his sinker like crazy. He’s throwing a good curveball, too, better than he normally does. He maximizes what he can do, which is all that you want.
The Diamondbacks’ run differential, quite simply, is misleading. Between July 1 and Aug. 2, the D-Backs displayed a bizarre knack for getting blown out in the final game of a series. They suffered four such defeats, getting outscored, 48-1 — and distorting their differential.
Such anomalies tend to even out over 162 games, but baseball is often inexplicable. In the end, the only stat that matters is won-loss record. The 2007 Diamondbacks are the latest proof.
Johnny be gone?
The Yankees’ Johnny Damon is that rare fading star who is realistic about his future.
Damon knows that Melky Cabrera will be the Yankees’ center fielder for years to come. He knows that Jason Giambi will get most of the at-bats at designated hitter. He knows that he could be the odd man out this off-season if the Yankees exercise right fielder Bobby Abreu’s $16 million option.
Abreu’s return isn’t assured — the Yankees might prefer to keep the more athletic Damon, stick him in left field next season and move Hideki Matsui to right. The Yankees also could exercise Abreu’s option with the idea of trading him, just as they did last season with Gary Sheffield. But Abreu, unlike Sheffield, possesses a full no-trade clause.
Damon, guaranteed $26 million over the next two seasons, would be easier to move. He can be traded to 12 teams without his permission and almost certainly would waive his no-trade protection to another club for the chance to resume being an everyday player — especially if he were offered a contract extension.
The demand for Damon isn’t what it was. His home runs have declined from 24 last season to seven this season. His slugging percentage has dropped from .482 to .369. But say this for Damon — he’s accepting his reduced role with minimal complaint.
Damon, who lives in Orlando, says he would prefer to stay on the East coast if he leaves the Yankees, though he would consider joining a team in the Midwest. The Braves will need a center fielder if they lose Andruw Jones as a free agent, but would be more likely to move right fielder Jeff Francoeur to center than acquire Damon on the downside.
Still, Damon could be an attractive alternative for teams that fail to land one of the top free-agent center fielders — Jones, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron and Aaron Rowand.
Hot Jorge
The Yankees want to keep catcher Jorge Posada. Posada wants to remain with the Yankees. But the situation could grow more complicated than the team ever imagined.
Will Jorge Posada be a Yankee next year? (Al Bello / Getty Images)
If Posada becomes a free agent, he will be by far the best catcher in a thin market. And, even though he just turned 36 — an advanced age for a catcher — he keeps improving offensively.
Consider Posada’s on-base and slugging percentages the past three seasons:
2005: .352 OBP, .430 SLG
2006: .374, .492 SLG
2007: .417, .537 SLG
Logically, the pattern shouldn’t continue, and catchers often experienced marked declines once their skills begin to fade.
Posada, though, could be an exception.
A converted infielder, he’s athletic enough to play first base, not to mention a good enough hitter to serve as a DH in the American League.
The Mets, Cubs, Astros and Angels are among the teams that could be looking for catchers this off-season. The Yankees also will need to re-sign two other potential free agents, third baseman Alex Rodriguez and closer Mariano Rivera.
The best guess is that the Yankees will retain both Posada and Rivera, but what if they offer Posada two years and the Mets offer him four? Could get interesting.
May day
The Reds’ Ken Griffey Jr. and Tigers’ Cameron Maybin both are represented by Brian Goldberg, and Griffey called Maybin to congratulate him on his promotion to the majors from Class AA.
According to Maybin, Griffey told him, “Try to relax. I know you’ll be real pumped up, but that’s to be expected. Have fun. Enjoy it. You’ve got a lot more to come.”
Griffey made his major-league debut at 19 after 462 minor-league at-bats. Maybin made his debut at 20 after 693 minor-league ABs.
Even if Maybin doesn’t hit — unlikely, perhaps, considering that he crushed his first major-league homer off Roger Clemens — the Tigers should benefit from his speed and defensive ability.
Maybin goes home to first in 3.9 seconds from the right side. Once he gets more familiar with left field, he and center fielder Curtis Granderson will cover serious ground at spacious Comerica Park.
The Tigers’ defensive falloff this season is the untold story behind their inflated ERA. In 2006, the Tigers were second in the majors at converting balls in play into outs. This season, they are 22nd.
The Tigers’ other roster move Friday — the exchange of Omar Infante for Ramon Martinez — also was designed to improve the team’s defense.
Martinez is a more trustworthy shortstop than Infante, giving manager Jim Leyland a greater comfort level when he plays Carlos Guillen at first — a move that needs to happen more frequently, due to Guillen’s diminished range.
Around the horn
# It wouldn’t be a surprise if Blue Jays aggressively tried to move third baseman Troy Glaus this off-season. The Jays discussed Glaus with other clubs before the non-waiver deadline, and his recurring foot problems might leave the team with little choice but to send him to a club that plays on a natural-grass surface. The Jays will play 97 games on turf this season — 81 at home, nine at Tampa Bay and seven in Minnesota . . .
# One scout who frequently travels overseas notes an increased presence by major-league clubs in Japan this season. His conclusion: The weak free-agent crop will motivate teams to look elsewhere for talent. Japanese relievers, in particular, have proven to be a bargain. The Red Sox signed rookie left-hander Hideki Okajima for $2.5 million over two years with a $1.75 million club option for a third. The Dodgers signed closer Takashi Saito as a minor-league free agent last season and are paying him $1 million this season .
# While center fielder Carlos Beltran is probably the Mets’ best offensive player, the most important might be left fielder Moises Alou. “He’s one of the very best clutch hitters in our game,” one rival executive says. “He doesn’t care about the situation or who is on the mound. If he gets his pitch, he’ll beat you.” Alou’s career numbers with runners in scoring position: .307 BA, .391 OBP, .513 SLG. . . .
# The Yankees’ evolution this season justifies their decision not to re-sign Bernie Williams. Melky Cabrera probably would not have gotten the same number of at-bats if Williams were still with the club. Shelley Duncan probably would not have gotten a chance to be this season’s Shane Spencer. The Yankees’ roster also is more flexible without Williams, making it easier for them to carry a 12th pitcher . . .
# The Rockies are not interested in left-hander David Wells. They will continue testing the two rookies in their rotation, righty Ubaldo Jimenez and lefty Franklin Morales, and, if necessary, attempt to trade for Orioles right-hander Steve Trachsel. Both Jimenez and Morales possess lights-out stuff, so their potential to make an impact is far greater than Trachsel’s . . .
# Left-hander Eric Stults gave the Dodgers a boost when he struck out nine Rockies in a 6-4 victory on Friday night, but the Dodgers continued their pursuit of Wells, knowing that Stults hadn’t exactly torn it up at Class AAA. Stults, 27, allowed 134 hits in 89 1/3 innings with Las Vegas, going 5-7 with a 7.56 ERA . . .
# The Tigers will release outfielder Craig Monroe if they can’t trade him, and it’s likely that Monroe would draw interest as a free agent. Monroe batted only .222 with 94 strikeouts in 343 at-bats, but he could be a reasonably priced gamble for a low-revenue club seeking to fill an outfield spot for the rest of this season and 2008 . . .
